The GOP losing to Donald Trump = Democratic Win in 2016

Well, a lot has happened within the last post.  I am going to really strive to post every other day about the political happenings going on in the United States; and, I might even touch on some international areas of consideration.

            If you missed the first GOP debate, please be sure to DVR the next one – It will take place on September 16, 2015 on CNN. There were way to many candidates for everyone to get ample time to answer questions – not that any of the candidates (except one) really answer the questions. There were two main disagreements between Governor Chris Christie & Senator Rand Paul (which proved that Paul can take on aggressive candidates without missing a beat) and Businessman Donald Trump & Senator Rand Paul (which also proved that Paul doesn’t even understand why Trump is a candidate if he is willing to destroy the party is aligning himself with). I do think it was a good debate performance for Senator Paul even though he sort-of got a little heated at times. I’m not the biggest fan of Rand Paul (mainly because I’m a registered democrat) but his performance was the second best. In fact, he does better in a small crowd and on a one on one conversation. Full disclosure, I did meet him in South Carolina at one of his “Pints for Liberty” rallies. He can really turn out the crowds & can sway the minds of those that can read into his rhetoric.

            Donald Trump is just a big pain in the GOP’s side with his insane rhetoric and outlandish statements. IF he were not in the race, I can almost guarantee that Senator Paul would be number one in the polls. Sadly, Trump is leading all the polls with his hard lines on immigration, the national deficit and jobs, the economy, and even social issues – which make no sense and I can’t fathom why Republicans are so wild about him regarding those issues. Even his rude behavior towards Fox’s Megan Kelly went unchallenged by the GOP. The arguments were that she was “too hard” on her questions towards him – which I always thought if you want to be the Commander-In-Chief you should get the tough questions, but then again… - and only fueled the unclaimed notion that the liberal media was taking over the country. If that is indeed true, where will Republicans get their news from now that Faux, er, Fox News has gone liberal. I don’t recall Shepard Smith or Bill O’Reilly resigning in protest. Trump is actually drowning out the other Republican candidates who seem rational in any other election year. If Trump breaches the 40% approval rating, Senators Paul, Cruz, and Neurosurgeon Ben Carson will drop out before the Iowa Caucuses finish on Caucus night.

            The best game-plan right now is for the GOP to call out Donald Trump for what he really is – an adult crybaby with a temper tantrum if he doesn’t get his way. He is indeed demanding he get the nomination otherwise he will threaten the party with a third party bid (which has never worked so I hope he realizes that at some point). Seriously, Trump has the “kiss my ring or else” mentality.  Last I checked, Democracy doesn’t work like that. Trump is behaving like North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un, with worse hair! The GOP need to band together and declare that he does not represent the party. Meanwhile, the Democrats need to stop sitting down and taking his jabs and stand up and go toe-to-toe with Trump. Politics is dirty, so both parties need to have a bipartisan effort to show Trump how the game is played. If you want to play with the big kids, you need to learn how to master the game instead of trying to buy out the referees of the game – yes, the referees are the American People.

            If Trump were not in the GOP primary, then Senator Paul would be first, followed by Ohio Governor John Kasich (who is the only true Republican that even comes to a Reagan Republican), then Governor Scott Walker. It is still too early, for most people, to determine the nomination ticket for the GOP, but there is only one clear ticket that I know could attempt to blindside the Democrats next year. Can you figure it out? Stay tuned…

Me & Kentucky Senator, and GOP Presidential candidate, Rand Paul

"Pints for Liberty" Rally

Columbia, SC

Madness in Iowa; Next Stop - New Hampshire!

Well, once the official results were called at 2:40AM on January 4th, most people would have gone to bed.  As much as I wanted to do that, I somehow managed to stay up until 3:30 just to listen to the political pundits.  The Iowa Republican Caucus needs to step up their game for the next cycle.  It should not take over five hours to count ballots.

Anyway, here are the official results from the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus:

1st - Mitt Romney (30,015 votes) - 25%
2nd - Rick Santorum (30,007 votes) - 25%
3rd - Ron Paul (26,219 votes) - 21%
4th - Newt Gingrich (16,251 votes) - 13%
5th - Rick Perry (12,604 votes) - 10%**
6th - Michele Bachmann (6,073 votes) - 5%***
7th - Jon Huntsman (745 votes)- 1%*
 *Remember that Huntsman focused on New Hampshire.
** Around 11:45PM on 1/3/12, Rick Perry announced he would not go directly to South Carolina; instead, he would return to Texas to "reassess" his campaign (which means he will be leaving the race within the next 48 hours or so).
*** At 11:30AM on 1/4/12, Michele Bachmann "suspended" her campaign to become the GOP nominee.  She is the forth official candidate to drop out of the race to become the nominee for the Republican Party (after Pawlenty, McCotter, and Cain).
Hermain Cain, to my knowledge, earned at least five votes but since he is not longer in the race, it becomes a moot point.

Now, my predictions for the Iowa Republican Caucus looked something like this:

Ron Paul - 26%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Rick Santorum - 19%
Rick Perry - 13%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 7%
Jon Huntsman - 2%

So, a couple of things to keep in mind: I KNEW Huntsman would be in last place; I knew Romney would do better than Santorum and Perry would do better than Bachmann, I new Paul would get at least twenty percent, and I got at least five percentages either correct or within one or two percentage points. Also, I knew Bachmann would drop out due to poor results in Iowa - her birthplace. As previously stated in my post, "Another Debate...and they still don't get it" I predicted she would lose the Iowa Caucus...even though she won the Ames Straw Poll.

With only six days away from the New Hampshire Primary, I can only image what the wonderful citizens of the Granite State will do. Not that they need to do better than Iowa, but they will make their voices heard loud and clear in a way that will make Iowa look like a joke. Of course I'm being biased for New Hampshire...I worked there for the midterms! Haha!

Not that Santorum became so close to winning Iowa, a lot of Republicans are really taking a second look at his candidacy. I really think if he wants to main "a serious contender" for the GOP, he'll need to beat Paul in New Hampshire and beat Romney in South Carolina.  I'm still figuring out what to expect from New Hampshire but when I do, I'll post my predictions. I think the biggest thing Ron Paul has to worry about is getting the votes from the older voting constituents (mainly because the younger generation just flocks to him). Voters in New Hampshire are very particular about who they are going to vote for and I would guess at least 75% of them have their minds made up already. Unlike Iowa, nobody can tell them who to vote for at the last minute and expect them to vote for that candidate. New Hampshirites know their politics!  Okay, I think I have everything covered regarding Iowa; now it's time to return to the the news channels, data to read, etc.

Oh, by the way, Romney won Iowa over Santorum by only 8 VOTES!!! I never want to hear, "well my vote won't count" because EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!

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Holiday Madness approaching Iowa!

I can't believe it's been a month since my last blog entry.  WOW!  First things first: I hope everyone had a safe and wonderful Christmas holiday (or Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, etc).  I decided to stay in North Carolina this year for Christmas.  I generally travel to New York; however, I went up there for Thanksgiving so I didn't think it would be justifiable to return there for another holiday.  While we received no snow in western North Carolina, it was freezing!!!  I can only image what the New Year will bring in relation to winter weather.  In other areas, I hope 2012 will be a good political year for me, and my party!

Now, with the Iowa Caucus only days away...I am sure it's five days & nineteen hours to be exact...I am shocked that Santorum is gaining in the polls!  I mean, where did this come from?? I figured Paul would pull the upset in Iowa which would cause both Santorum, Bachmann, or both to suspend their campaigns.  The latest polling data shows Santorum with 16%?????  I figured even Iowans knew that this election was going to be about jobs, track records, and continuing to get the economy back on track; did they somehow miss that memo?  Maybe I'm just over-analyzing this, but Iowa is not really all that much of a determination as to who will be the President of the United States - or even a party's nomination.  With the exception of Carter, Bush, & Obama....anyone who ever won the Iowa Caucus never became the party nominee and won the Presidency.  New Hampshire is more accurate than Iowa - and from a personal account, WAY more political and the voters KNOW their stuff (I loved working in New Hampshire for the 2010 midterms).

Honestly, here is my prediction of how the Iowa Caucus will play out*:

Ron Paul - 26%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Rick Santorum - 19%
Rick Perry - 13%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 7%
Jon Huntsman - 2%**

Disclaimer: The reason why I have Bachmann doing better than Gingrich is due to Herman Cain's supporters are split between her and Ron Paul.  Apparently a majority of former Huckabee supporters are backing Rick Santorum...which is why I have him ahead of the Congresswoman.  I really think that after everything is over in Iowa, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann will drop out of the race to become the GOP nominee.

* One of my great friends, and dear colleague, disagrees with my predictions concerning Iowa.  I image he probably did a lot better in Political Analysis/Statistics...but I don't think he went to a National Conference of Undergraduate Research, haha!

** Huntsman will receive some votes but not a lot mainly because his focus is geared towards the New Hampshire Primary.  He has to at least come in first, second, or a strong third in New Hampshire in order to stay in the race to become the GOP nominee.

I've already started making my predictions about how the Democrats will regain control of the House and maintain a majority in the Senate.  I'll be sure mention that at some point in the near future.  For the moment, all eyes will continue to be looking at the Hawkeye State. By January 4, 2012, we will have potentially one less person trying to earn the GOP nominee-status for the November election in hopes of beating President Barack Obama! (hint: it won't happen)

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