I can't believe it's been a month since my last blog entry. WOW! First things first: I hope everyone had a safe and wonderful Christmas holiday (or Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, etc). I decided to stay in North Carolina this year for Christmas. I generally travel to New York; however, I went up there for Thanksgiving so I didn't think it would be justifiable to return there for another holiday. While we received no snow in western North Carolina, it was freezing!!! I can only image what the New Year will bring in relation to winter weather. In other areas, I hope 2012 will be a good political year for me, and my party!
Now, with the Iowa Caucus only days away...I am sure it's five days & nineteen hours to be exact...I am shocked that Santorum is gaining in the polls! I mean, where did this come from?? I figured Paul would pull the upset in Iowa which would cause both Santorum, Bachmann, or both to suspend their campaigns. The latest polling data shows Santorum with 16%????? I figured even Iowans knew that this election was going to be about jobs, track records, and continuing to get the economy back on track; did they somehow miss that memo? Maybe I'm just over-analyzing this, but Iowa is not really all that much of a determination as to who will be the President of the United States - or even a party's nomination. With the exception of Carter, Bush, & Obama....anyone who ever won the Iowa Caucus never became the party nominee and won the Presidency. New Hampshire is more accurate than Iowa - and from a personal account, WAY more political and the voters KNOW their stuff (I loved working in New Hampshire for the 2010 midterms).
Honestly, here is my prediction of how the Iowa Caucus will play out*:
Ron Paul - 26%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Rick Santorum - 19%
Rick Perry - 13%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 7%
Jon Huntsman - 2%**
Disclaimer: The reason why I have Bachmann doing better than Gingrich is due to Herman Cain's supporters are split between her and Ron Paul. Apparently a majority of former Huckabee supporters are backing Rick Santorum...which is why I have him ahead of the Congresswoman. I really think that after everything is over in Iowa, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann will drop out of the race to become the GOP nominee.
* One of my great friends, and dear colleague, disagrees with my predictions concerning Iowa. I image he probably did a lot better in Political Analysis/Statistics...but I don't think he went to a National Conference of Undergraduate Research, haha!
** Huntsman will receive some votes but not a lot mainly because his focus is geared towards the New Hampshire Primary. He has to at least come in first, second, or a strong third in New Hampshire in order to stay in the race to become the GOP nominee.
I've already started making my predictions about how the Democrats will regain control of the House and maintain a majority in the Senate. I'll be sure mention that at some point in the near future. For the moment, all eyes will continue to be looking at the Hawkeye State. By January 4, 2012, we will have potentially one less person trying to earn the GOP nominee-status for the November election in hopes of beating President Barack Obama! (hint: it won't happen)
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