Monday, January 23, 2012

The Southern Showdown in Politics

          Well what a night in the Palmetto State!  I, among others, did not see the results turn out quite like that; at least nobody predicted the events to unfold like they did.  Okay, so let's get to the results:

                                 South Carolina 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Results

                                 1st Place - Newt Gingrich 40%  (243,153 votes)
                                 2nd Place - Mitt Romney 28% (167,279 votes)
                                 3rd Place - Rick Santorum 17% (102,055 votes)
                                 4th Place - Ron Paul 13% (77,993 votes)

                              Also, my predictions for South Carolina were as followed:

                                 1st Place - Romney 33%
                                 2nd Place - Gingrich 31%
                                 3rd Place - Santorum 19 %
                                 4th Place - Paul 17%                                     

          Looking back at the results from the South Carolina primary, I knew a few things would happen: Santorum would do better than Paul; Santorum would get close to 19%; Gingrich would get over 30% (haha); and, nobody would drop out of the race to become the party's nominee. The main thing to take away from South Carolina is the win of Newt Gingrich and how he pulled an upset over Mitt Romney.
          The overwhelming observation - in addition to winning - is the percentage in which Newt Gingrich won in South Carolina over the "establishment candidate" as coined by the Speaker himself.  It is very reminiscent of McCain's 17% win over Romney back in 2008 (remember that Romney finished a distant fourth place only earning 15% of the votes cast). While Gingrich's lead was not as high as McCain's, it still proves that South Carolina does not like Mitt Romney on multiple positions ranging from his faith, his "elite style of living", and his attitude.  I guess in the eyes of "conservative South Carolinian's", being a Mormon is worse than an adulterer and they can't recognize one greedy corrupt politician from another. I don't know if that's ironic or not...but it is funny never-the-less.  Even Gingrich's "victory" speech was in his usual arrogant, flat, professor-lecturing-for-hours-because-he-has-tenure voice.  The rhetoric of "Obama is the worst president" and "Obama has a poor job performance" is just outrageous and insulting.
          If Newt actually believes he is going to earn the GOP nomination, then he is sadly mistaken! I find it hard to believe that Gingrich will be able to convince the GOP that he can challenge the President in November...and win.  With many of his former colleagues against him, at least one ex-wife, and two different states (Iowa and New Hampshire), he has a long shot of winning the nomination.  Even prominent Republicans like Senator Tom Coburn - Oklahoma, and Chris Christie - governor from New Jersey, think he is not fit to be the GOP nominee (I even forgot to mention Ron Paul - congressman from Texas - and Rick Santorum - former senator from Pennsylvania, haha).  the fact that the Republican Party is split between the old republicans and the new extreme republicans is just a sad thing.  They have no viable candidate to even attempt to challenge the President in November.  I even heard one conservative commentator today discuss the possibility of delegates to the Republican National Convention being split on who the nominee should even be! I guess time will tell and I think 2012 will be the year that all states, not just the first four or five states, will have a chance to have their voice heard regarding who should be on the ballot in November.
          The next state the republican candidates will head to on the road to the nomination is indeed Florida.  This is the state that won the site for the Party National Convention for 2012 (the site is Tampa by the way).  From my understanding, Florida is more moderate than South Carolina (thanks to the northerners who moved down there) and I'm certain John McCain won the state with 36% of the vote back in 2008.  In fact, McCain beat Romney by just 5% back in 2008.  If McCain voters are still not warming up to Romney this year and they support Gingrich, then Newt may win the Sunshine State in addition to the Palmetto State.  I guess we'll have to watch the debate on Thursday night and see if Romney can rebound after his lose in South Carolina.
          On a positive note, President Obama will deliver his State of the Union Address on Tuesday night at 9.  Herman Cain will give the Tea Party response to the address and I don't know who will be giving the Republican response - but I image it will be a member from a swing state!

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Raised in the South[ern Political Scene]

          I predicted Rick Perry would drop out to become the GOP Presidential nominee (last night as well as a week ago).  This is due to his low polling numbers and his inability to finish a coherent, or valid point, in any debate.  Besides, I can't image the voters would want their next president to come from Texas (after President Obama's second term...and no offense to any Texans I know).  I also know that Jon Huntsman dropped out this week; I wish Perry had of done so before Huntsman.
          Okay, with two days left until the South Carolina Presidential Primary, it is only fitting to briefly discuss the Palmetto State.  After that, I'll give my predictions. Now, my predictions will be a little harder to solidify mainly because a lot has taken place within the past five hours and everything goes back to square three (figuratively-speaking).  In addition, I couldn't give an accurate prediction because:
1) I don't have a PhD...yet;
2) South Carolina is tough to call because only two GOP candidates have campaigned and been in official primary polls before (Romney & Paul), and
3) I live in North Carolina - the better of the two states as life is better on top of things.

          South Carolina is one of the states with the highest unemployment rates in the country- currently 9.2% if I remember correctly.  This is surely above the national average of 8.4%.  In addition to a horrid job market, South Carolinians are relatively influenced by religion. Over half of all residents of the Palmetto State are evangelical Christians and believe in the King James Bible (which is not a bad thing, but it can be used as a highly effective way to reach out to voters).  South Carolina's devotion to raising revenue is not just found in Religion; it is also found in its travel and tourism industry.  For this sector of the state economy, the focal points include Myrtle Beach, Hilton Head, Charleston, Columbia (the state capital for those that are not good with geography), and even Spartanburg & Greenville.
          The south offers a lot of wonders...in South Carolina, not so much.  I still have yet to understand, or have been explained the reasoning, why South Carolina is so important to be considered worthy of being the "Primary of the South" breadwinner for professional politics.  I would image there are way better places within the southern states that could represent the "Southern Vote" than the state of South Carolina.  Heck, even from a historical standpoint the capital of the Confederation was never in South Carolina, Sherman's March did NOT go through Columbia or anywhere else in the Palmetto State, Gettysburg was in Pennsylvania, and Fort Sumpter is in South Carolina but it wasn't even that big of a deal (I know I'll get an earful from all my History-fanatic friends later on that issue).  Even though South Carolina was the first to secede from the Union, this does not make it valid for them to be dubbed as "first primary in the south and what we say goes" because - the end of the day - South Carolina: fought in a war...and lost, good reprimanded, supported slavery, had their economy crushed because of said issues, acted like a five year-old by rebelling, and has good places to get food (real BBQ comes from NORTH Carolina).
         
          Anyway, onto the importance of predicting the South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary:

          1st - Romney 33%
          2nd - Gingrich 31%
          3rd - Santorum 19 %
          4th - Paul 17%          

          After everything settles down in South Carolina - and the lights go out in Georgia (don't ask) - all eyes will turn onto the Sunshine State...and no, it's not Ohio! While I have many friends from Florida, I hope they have stepped up their voting procedures since the last election cycles. I mean, honestly, we don't need another reason to hate Florida. I image they'll do alright since 2000 still haunts them to this day, haha!

Don't forget the SC Debate is on today at 8pm on CNN. 

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Sunday, January 15, 2012

New Hampshire Toss Up, Minus The Chowder


Well, this past week has been an interesting one regarding politics.  After everything, I again managed to completely miscalculate the importance of last-minute politics in New Hampshire.  Let’s just go ahead and state the obvious that Mitt Romney won New Hampshire because he has the most money out of all the candidates…as well as the most super-PACs.  The question we need to ask ourselves is whether or not Mitt Romney will indeed become the GOP’s nominee to challenge Obama for the Presidency in November.  I guess I’ll discuss the New Hampshire results before I continue to talk any more politics and predictions.

Official Results of the 2012 New Hampshire Presidential Primary:

1st Place – Mitt Romney (97,532 Votes) - 39.3%
2nd Place – Ron Paul (56,848) - 22.9%
3rd Place – Jon Huntsman (41,945) - 16.9%
4th Place – Newt Gingrich (23,411) - 9.4%
5th Place – Santorum (23,362) - 9.4%
6th Place – Perry (1,766) - .07% *

* It is important to bear in mind that the only time Perry was in New Hampshire was to debate (twice, if memory serves me correctly).

Well, I knew the following things: Romney would win New Hampshire; Perry would come in last (like “second from the bottom” last); Huntsman would be in the top three spots, Santorum would lose momentum after Iowa; and no candidate would drop out of the GOP race after the NH Primaries.
          Now, this is the second time that Ron Paul has come in a reasonably good finish within a political race.  There is still time to determine how he will do in South Carolina. The surprising thing about New Hampshire is Rick Perry. I know he would not do well because he spent virtually no time in the Granite State; however, by only earning seven-tenths of a percent is a HORRIBLE thing for the Perry Campaign.  I mean, even the Huntsman did better in Iowa than Perry did in New Hampshire! I think that speaks for itself.  Alright, I won’t bash Perry but I will say this – he is getting closer to ending his campaign sooner than people want to believe.
          On another note, Gingrich has really stepped up his attacks on Romney – surprise, surprise! I don’t understand why he is even bothering to do it.  Let’s be honest, Romney is more electable than Gingrich and could gain more votes than the Speaker ever could while in Congress! I’m sorry, but as a Democrat, the political tide has turned from the “Reagan era” and those policies don’t work in the twenty-first century – not that they worked in the twentieth century either.  One could argue that Romney is the “new face” of the Republican Party with his “leading from behind” rhetoric appealing to Teabaggers Anonymous (Oh, did I say “TeaBagger”…I meant to say “Tea Party” supporters).  It would be really hypocritical for anyone who calls themselves a Tea Party member to support Mitt Romney as he is the face of “horrid Corrupt Capitalism”. I highly doubt the conservative state of South Carolina will be able to give him the nod to become the GOP nomination; but alas, we shall see within the upcoming two weeks.

Monday, January 9, 2012

New Hampshire: Where Potential Presidential Candidates EARN Their vote

          With only two days until Republicans - and Independents - in New Hampshire go to the cast their vote in the Presidential Primary election, only Republicans will be able to pick a candidate who will face President Obama in November (and lose).  Let me clarify, New Hampshire voters have a better track record for picking party nominees and presidents. I mean, they voted for McCain for the Republicans back in 08 and went to Obama in the general election.  They know their politics.
          With all of that in mind, I'd like to focus on Mitt Romney - the presumed GOP nominee to challenge the President this year.  When he ran in 2008, he received only 31% of the primary votes and did not get the party nomination.  Furthermore, I think the voters of the Granite State understand the "accomplishments" of the governor next door. Such accomplishments include: raising taxes and fees for corporations as well as on middle-class families in "The Bay State" during his tenure as their governor, making the model for "ObamaCare" from his "RomneyCare" healthcare plan, integration of English into schools (which does not even make sense and is not needed) to combat illegal immigration - because after all, Massachusetts has a lot of illegal immigrants from Canada and should therefore be considered a border state...maybe they have a pirate issue as well!

          Okay, so here is my predictions for the 2012 New Hampshire Presidential Primary:

                                                                    Mitt Romney - 30%
                                                                    Jon Huntsman - 24%
                                                                    Ron Paul - 19%
                                                                    Rick Santorum - 14%
                                                                    Newt Gingrich - 11%*
                                                                    Rick Perry - 3%*
          
   * - Both of these candidates will not drop out after New Hampshire as they purchased huge amounts of TV ad time in South Carolina - and I'm being forced to watch them as I'm in the viewing area.
    
           Even though Romney has a commanding lead right now, I really think his performance in this weekend's debates will hurt him in the final stretch leading up to the primaries.  Personally, I think his attack on Jon Huntsman's service to the nation was shameful and downright arrogant (equal to the $10,000 bet offer).  He should win the Dumb-Ass award, not the GOP nomination. (Huntsman 1, Romney 0)
           Speaking of Jon Huntsman, I'm so glad he got the endorsement of the Boston Globe - which was a big brush-off to Romney (Huntsman 2, Romney 0).  Huntsman's climb in the polls is a great sign...I just hope it will last through Tuesday.  If Huntsman wins in New Hampshire - BIG IF (even I don't predict it) - then that would be a huge setback for Team Romney. [I would like to also add that I am really annoyed that the political pundits have the candidates as teams....this is NOT a freakin' tween novel series!!! But, if we are going to go down that route, then I am Team Huntsman & Team Obama, haha.]  Yes, I am a fan of Jon Huntsman; moreover, he is the ONLY GOP candidate I will support...I'm still not liking Ron Paul.  Why [you may ask]; because I'm not a noob. <---Inside joke by the way.
           Huntsman had his best debate performance on Sunday during ABC's Meet The Press. This is the one where he put Romney in his place regarding his service to the country - and his two sons serving in the military.  Once he heard Romney's lame attempt to gain more votes, Huntsman looked at the voters of New Hampshire - and those to tuned into the program - and said, "this is why America is divided; because of views like that" which received a thunderous applause from the crowd (and yes, I gave a standing ovation right there in my living room).  After that, I really couldn't help but notice that Santorum was trying to play the "I'm a evangelical, tea-partier-but-not-really, anti-gay candidate" which was just comical.
          I do not understand how Rick Santorum almost won the Iowa Caucus.  To clarify, I know HOW; but, it still baffles me and even scares me because he has no substance.  He merely latched onto the Huckabee endorsement and took it to the bank - he's lucky it worked in Iowa because it won't do a thing in New Hampshire.  Remember, Huckabee gained only 11% of the Republican primary votes in 2008.  They want someone better than that so Santorum should pick up on that. He found out that same-sex marriage is still accepted in New Hampshire when he was booed at a rally in Concord this past week. Also, if you are going to pull off the sweater vest look, please buy them from a respectable store like Brooks Brothers, Banana Republic, or Gap. Jos. A Banks is NOT the place to buy sweater vests.  It is a place to buy sweaters but NEVER sweater vests. [Yes, there is a difference and it is more than just one having sleeves versus one not having sleeves.] Moving on to the other candidates.
          The only thing I will say about Rick Perry is that I'm glad he remembered the three agencies he wanted to eliminate.  I am also thrilled to learn that he blames George W Bush for the mess that the country is currently experiencing.  He further proved why the United States does NOT need to elect another person from Texas - because they screw the country up worse than Texas Two-Step on Tuesday night instead of Friday night.  Well, I'm guessing that's when they have dancing night as I'm sure they don't watch Glee in Texas - even though Mark Salling is from Texas. If Perry were to get elected, then the Congress would do to him what they do in Texas - they'd "treat him ugly" and veto anything he tried to abolish. One last thing about Perry: I think when you governor a state that has always tried to secede from the union, you should automatically be disqualified to hold the nation's highest office. As long as I'm talking Texas politicians, I really don't think Ron Paul will do anything after Florida.  With that said, he'll bow out and retire from politics.
          Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, will continue to fight for the nomination and cry "flip-flopper", "bad governor" and fit "Reagan conservative" into every sound-bite he can. I love it when Republicans want to lower taxes, yet "The Gipper" raises taxes over eight times during his time in the White House. Don't you just love Reaganomics? If you are like me and barely remember Reagan, just look to the last Republican President: Ol' W. That's right, George W Bush paved the way for tax cuts to those wealthiest Americans & corporations - yet lost over seven million jobs during his time and office AND signed two free-trade agreements sending jobs elsewhere. Let's also remember that Bush made a lot more recess appointments than Obama...or should I save that for another time? :D
          After Tuesday, the candidates will travel to my area of the country.  I will try my best to make the drive to South Carolina - as Greenville & Spartanburg are only an hour & twenty-to-thirty minutes away - to see if i can get a picture or shake a hand with these candidates.  It's not that I'm endorsing them; it's just the fact that I am being a part of history and it will be a chapter in my book whenever I decide to write it. I would have said something to tell the kids and grandchildren, but I don't see myself being a parent anytime in the next twenty or thirty years. The future Mrs. will have to be just as politically-minded, if not more so, than I am .     

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Madness in Iowa; Next Stop - New Hampshire!

Well, once the official results were called at 2:40AM on January 4th, most people would have gone to bed.  As much as I wanted to do that, I somehow managed to stay up until 3:30 just to listen to the political pundits.  The Iowa Republican Caucus needs to step up their game for the next cycle.  It should not take over five hours to count ballots.

Anyway, here are the official results from the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus:

1st - Mitt Romney (30,015 votes) - 25%
2nd - Rick Santorum (30,007 votes) - 25%
3rd - Ron Paul (26,219 votes) - 21%
4th - Newt Gingrich (16,251 votes) - 13%
5th - Rick Perry (12,604 votes) - 10%**
6th - Michele Bachmann (6,073 votes) - 5%***
7th - Jon Huntsman (745 votes)- 1%*
 *Remember that Huntsman focused on New Hampshire.
** Around 11:45PM on 1/3/12, Rick Perry announced he would not go directly to South Carolina; instead, he would return to Texas to "reassess" his campaign (which means he will be leaving the race within the next 48 hours or so).
*** At 11:30AM on 1/4/12, Michele Bachmann "suspended" her campaign to become the GOP nominee.  She is the forth official candidate to drop out of the race to become the nominee for the Republican Party (after Pawlenty, McCotter, and Cain).
Hermain Cain, to my knowledge, earned at least five votes but since he is not longer in the race, it becomes a moot point.

Now, my predictions for the Iowa Republican Caucus looked something like this:

Ron Paul - 26%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Rick Santorum - 19%
Rick Perry - 13%
Michele Bachmann - 10%
Newt Gingrich - 7%
Jon Huntsman - 2%

So, a couple of things to keep in mind: I KNEW Huntsman would be in last place; I knew Romney would do better than Santorum and Perry would do better than Bachmann, I new Paul would get at least twenty percent, and I got at least five percentages either correct or within one or two percentage points. Also, I knew Bachmann would drop out due to poor results in Iowa - her birthplace. As previously stated in my post, "Another Debate...and they still don't get it" I predicted she would lose the Iowa Caucus...even though she won the Ames Straw Poll.

With only six days away from the New Hampshire Primary, I can only image what the wonderful citizens of the Granite State will do. Not that they need to do better than Iowa, but they will make their voices heard loud and clear in a way that will make Iowa look like a joke. Of course I'm being biased for New Hampshire...I worked there for the midterms! Haha!

Not that Santorum became so close to winning Iowa, a lot of Republicans are really taking a second look at his candidacy. I really think if he wants to main "a serious contender" for the GOP, he'll need to beat Paul in New Hampshire and beat Romney in South Carolina.  I'm still figuring out what to expect from New Hampshire but when I do, I'll post my predictions. I think the biggest thing Ron Paul has to worry about is getting the votes from the older voting constituents (mainly because the younger generation just flocks to him). Voters in New Hampshire are very particular about who they are going to vote for and I would guess at least 75% of them have their minds made up already. Unlike Iowa, nobody can tell them who to vote for at the last minute and expect them to vote for that candidate. New Hampshirites know their politics!  Okay, I think I have everything covered regarding Iowa; now it's time to return to the the news channels, data to read, etc.

Oh, by the way, Romney won Iowa over Santorum by only 8 VOTES!!! I never want to hear, "well my vote won't count" because EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!

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